BetMate Edge
Analysis Hub
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NRL
BetMate Edge v4 (Walters Edition) round bet card. Preliminary run Mon 13 Jul — updates after Tuesday team lists.
NRL Win Rates
Model calibration · 683 predictions · H2H win probability trust zones
AFL
Round 19 2026 — OPENER window · Walters pipeline: structural → BMA → market · eighth-Kelly sizing
AFL Win Rates
Model calibration · 734 predictions · where the model's probability can be trusted
High Value Bets
Sort the strongest selections by QI, EV, Edge or Date.
Player Props
Highest-rated props for goals, shots, shots on target, assists and cards. Only props with QI 60+ are shown.
Market Summary
Strategy
Bet early when the model has a clear edge. Use the close as the report card.
BetMate Australia
Ported member-platform overview from BetMate Australia. This is separate from the FIFA World Cup model and does not replace the live World Cup dashboard.
UFC
Full UFC model board with best bets, member view, quant evidence, guardrails, self-learning and selection history.
NRL Band Analysis
Simple historical band summary: price-band win rate, ATS cover rate by spread band, and match totals over/under by total band.
Win % by Price Band
<$1.50
77.8%
$1.50-$1.79
55.2%
$1.80-$1.99
51.5%
$2.00-$2.49
42.7%
$2.50+
36.4%
| Price Band | Bets | Wins | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| <$1.50 | 9 | 7 | 77.8% |
| $1.50-$1.79 | 58 | 32 | 55.2% |
| $1.80-$1.99 | 431 | 222 | 51.5% |
| $2.00-$2.49 | 143 | 61 | 42.7% |
| $2.50+ | 11 | 4 | 36.4% |
ATS Favourite Cover % by Spread Band
Pick / <3.5
37.2%
3.5-6.5
45.5%
7.5-10.5
47.7%
11.5-14.5
58.7%
15.5+
45.9%
| Spread Band | Games | Fav | Dog | Home |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pick / <3.5 | 78 | 37.2% | 62.8% | 43.6% |
| 3.5-6.5 | 77 | 45.5% | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| 7.5-10.5 | 88 | 47.7% | 52.3% | 54.5% |
| 11.5-14.5 | 46 | 58.7% | 41.3% | 60.9% |
| 15.5+ | 37 | 45.9% | 54.1% | 40.5% |
Match Totals Over % by Total Band
<38.5
50.0%
38.5-41.5
51.1%
42.5-45.5
50.1%
46.5-49.5
46.7%
50.5+
45.4%
| Total Band | Games | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| <38.5 | 460 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 38.5-41.5 | 612 | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| 42.5-45.5 | 877 | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| 46.5-49.5 | 433 | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| 50.5+ | 229 | 45.4% | 54.6% |
AFL Band Analysis
Simple historical band summary: price-band win rate, ATS cover rate by spread band, and match totals over/under by total band.
Win % by Price Band
<$1.50
77.1%
$1.50-$1.79
56.8%
$1.80-$1.99
49.1%
$2.00-$2.49
43.4%
$2.50+
22.5%
| Price Band | Bets | Wins | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| <$1.50 | 2,219 | 1,710 | 77.1% |
| $1.50-$1.79 | 1,041 | 591 | 56.8% |
| $1.80-$1.99 | 470 | 231 | 49.1% |
| $2.00-$2.49 | 896 | 389 | 43.4% |
| $2.50+ | 2,322 | 523 | 22.5% |
ATS Favourite Cover % by Spread Band
Pick / <3.5
52.7%
3.5-6.5
45.0%
7.5-10.5
45.7%
11.5-14.5
47.6%
15.5+
47.6%
| Spread Band | Games | Fav | Dog | Home |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pick / <3.5 | 220 | 52.7% | 47.3% | 58.2% |
| 3.5-6.5 | 262 | 45.0% | 55.0% | 47.3% |
| 7.5-10.5 | 346 | 45.7% | 54.3% | 50.9% |
| 11.5-14.5 | 332 | 47.6% | 52.4% | 50.6% |
| 15.5+ | 1,631 | 47.6% | 52.4% | 49.7% |
Match Totals Over % by Total Band
<160.5
50.3%
160.5-169.5
47.9%
170.5-179.5
49.4%
180.5-189.5
46.7%
190.5+
44.9%
| Total Band | Games | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| <160.5 | 557 | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| 160.5-169.5 | 699 | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| 170.5-179.5 | 724 | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| 180.5-189.5 | 418 | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| 190.5+ | 187 | 44.9% | 55.1% |
Available Games
Only games that have not started are shown for selection.
Bet Options
QI is the main rating. It combines price value, model edge, win chance and odds risk into one score out of 100.
| QI | Option | Odds | Model Price | Model Prob | Book Prob | Edge | EV | Risk | Book |
|---|
Completed Games
Games move here after the estimated full-time window. Started games are removed from betting before they appear here.
| Match | Kickoff | Status | Best Recorded Option | QI |
|---|
Results
Completed tracked bets at QI 80+ and 1.80+ price, including result status, final-score detail and CLV or line move.
QI
Price
| Match | Bet | Book | Market Price | Bet Saved | Opening Line | Closing / Latest Line | Gap | Result | Detail | Settled |
|---|
Bet History
One row per bookie, game, market and unique price. Only QI 70+ bets are tracked.
| Match / Time | Bet / Market | Book | Opening Line | Closing / Latest Line | Direction | Gap | QI Move | Result / Profit |
|---|