BetMate Edge: Analysis Hub

High Value Bets

Sort the strongest selections by QI, EV, Edge or Date.

Player Props

Highest-rated props for goals, shots, shots on target, assists and cards. Only props with QI 60+ are shown.

Market Summary

Strategy

Bet early when the model has a clear edge. Use the close as the report card.

BetMate Australia

Ported member-platform overview from BetMate Australia. This is separate from the FIFA World Cup model and does not replace the live World Cup dashboard.

Source site

UFC

UFC dog-only guardrail board ported into BetMate Edge. This is separate from the FIFA World Cup model.

Full UFC report

UFC sharp quant board

Dog-only selections with false-favourite guardrails

Current UFC view uses non-market fight-path evidence first, then checks whether the market has overcharged the favourite enough to make the underdog playable.

Model Sharpness 86/100 process

76/100 proven until closing-line value and settled UFC selection history are captured.

Operating Mode Dog bets only

Favourites are filters unless future backtests prove durable favourite ROI.

Priced Bouts 12

Melbourne-time UFC board from the current UFCgd run.

Release-Grade Rows 3

Rows passing the dog guardrail and data-quality checks.

Historical Dog Bucket +12.04% ROI

Dog edge 5%+ bucket: 54 historical bets, 74.07% hit rate.

#1

19/07/2026 11:45 Melbourne time

Kamaru Usman

Dricus Du Plessis is priced too short. Usman's value route is to slow the fight, win clinch and wrestling minutes, and make the favourite work harder than the market expects.

Best price: 3.50 TAB
Geoff fair: 1.79
Dog edge: +24.5 pts
Status: Qualifies

#2

19/07/2026 09:45 Melbourne time

Tabatha Ricci

Fatima Kline may still be dangerous, but the price is too short. Ricci's value path is a grinding fight with control time, extended exchanges, and close rounds.

Best price: 4.25 Ladbrokes
Geoff fair: 2.03
Dog edge: +21.7 pts
Status: Qualifies

#3

16/08/2026 13:00 Melbourne time

Gillian Robertson

Robertson has the better repeatable path if the fight spends time in clinch, grappling, or top-control positions. The market is still treating Mackenzie Dern as too clear a side.

Best price: 3.00 TAB
Geoff fair: 1.92
Dog edge: +15.4 pts
Status: Qualifies

Guardrail Rules

Only release dog bets that pass the historical dog-edge bucket.
Require a visible price gap between market price and Geoff fair price.
Check data quality and usable fight sample before promotion.
Capture closing price before fight start and settle ROI after the bout.

Watch Rows

Bout	Dog / Price	Edge	Reason Held Back
Seok Hyun Ko vs Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani	Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani 2.70 BetOnline.ag	+23.6 pts	Thin Markov sample
Alden Coria vs Stewart Nicoll	Stewart Nicoll 8.25 Ladbrokes	+20.0 pts	Thin Markov sample
Christian Leroy Duncan vs Jared Cannonier	Jared Cannonier 3.70 BetOnline.ag	+13.5 pts	Dog price only

Available Games

Only games that have not started are shown for selection.

Bet Options

QI is the main rating. It combines price value, model edge, win chance and odds risk into one score out of 100.

QI	Option	Odds	Model Price	Model Prob	Book Prob	Edge	EV	Risk	Book

Completed Games

Games move here after the estimated full-time window. Started games are removed from betting before they appear here.

Match	Kickoff	Status	Best Recorded Option	QI

Results

Completed tracked bets at QI 80+ and 1.80+ price, including result status, final-score detail and CLV or line move.

Match	Bet	Book	Market Price	Bet Saved	Opening Line	Closing / Latest Line	Gap	Result	Detail	Settled

Bet History

One row per bookie, game, market and unique price. Only QI 70+ bets are tracked.

Match / Time	Bet / Market	Book	Opening Line	Closing / Latest Line	Direction	Gap	QI Move	Result / Profit