⚠️ Preliminary run. Ledger-anchored only (post-R19 Elo + venue HFA) — registry sources haven't published R20, no team lists (named 22s drop Tuesday 4pm AEST), no weather, Pinnacle not posted. Origin is over: no post-SOO adjustment this week. Full-source rerun Tuesday evening supersedes this card.
Round Verdict
No qualifying bets at the openers
0 of 8 games clear both gates (gap ≥ 2.5 pts AND EV ≥ +3%). A zero-bet round is a successful round — passing is the default, not a failure. Two games are one Tuesday development away.
⚠️ Watch #1 — closest to a bet
Sharks −4.5 @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)
v Knights · PointsBet Stadium · Fri 17 Jul 6pm · model has Sharks −8.7
Gap+4.2 pts — biggest structural edge of the round
EV after shrinkage+0.5% — fails the +3% gate at $1.90 flat
Why watchSharks rating +22 off the Dolphins win; PointsBet already −5.5
Becomes a bet ifregistry sources confirm ≥8 Tue AND −4.5 survives teams
⚠️ Watch #2
Dolphins −3.5 @ $1.89 (Sportsbet)
v Cowboys · Sun 19 Jul 4pm · model has Dolphins −6.8
Gap+3.3 pts
EV after shrinkage−1.0% — fails
CautionDolphins −22 Elo after Sharks loss; venue HFA 6.0 assumes Redcliffe — verify venue Tue
All 8 Games — lines for the first-named team (negative = favoured) · GAP = MKT − MDL · +GAP = value on first-named
| Game | MDL | Sportsbet | PointsBet | GAP | Best side / EV | Verdict |
|---|
| Panthers v Broncos | −15.7 | −14.5 | −13.5 | +1.2 | Panthers −14.5 · −2.1% | PASS |
| Sharks v Knights | −8.7 | −4.5 | −5.5 | +4.2 | Sharks −4.5 · +0.5% | WATCH |
| Roosters v Storm | −5.8 | −5.5 | −6.5 | −0.7 | model = market | PASS |
| Raiders v Rabbitohs | −1.0 | −1.5 | −1.5 | −0.5 | coin-flip both ways | PASS |
| Warriors v Dragons | −12.9 | −14.5 | −15.5 | −2.6 | Dragons +15.5 · −2.6% | PASS |
| Bulldogs v Tigers | −5.0 | −6.5 | −6.5 | −1.5 | Tigers +6.5 · −3.9% | PASS |
| Titans v Sea Eagles | +6.2 | +5.5 | +5.5 | −0.7 | Manly −5.5 · −5.3% | PASS |
| Dolphins v Cowboys | −6.8 | −3.5 | −3.5 | +3.3 | Dolphins −3.5 · −1.0% | WATCH |
MDL is mechanical ledger output: the post-R19 power-rating ledger (updated 13 Jul) converted at 25 Elo ≈ 1 pt + venue HFA. σ 17.4. Pinnacle not posted — two-book mode. Betfair exchange handicaps not yet liquid.
Why the Gaps Didn't Become Bets
Sharks and Dolphins both show real structural gaps (+4.2, +3.3) — but both books price those spreads at flat $1.90/$1.90, and the model probability gets shrunk 70% toward the market's 50%. The maths: a 4-pt gap is worth ~+13% raw EV, but after shrinkage it's under +1%. That's the discipline working as designed — a gap without a price is not a bet. If Tuesday's registry sources land near the ledger number, the shrunken probability rises and both can clear the gate at the same line.
Totals — no plays (low trust preliminary)
| Game | Model | Book | Gap | Verdict |
|---|
| Panthers v Broncos | 49.6 | 45.5 | +4.1 | PASS · O EV +2.6% |
| Sharks v Knights | 48.9 | 47.5 | +1.4 | PASS |
| Roosters v Storm | 48.6 | 44.5 | +4.1 | PASS · O EV +2.6% |
| Raiders v Rabbitohs | 48.1 | 48.5 | −0.4 | PASS |
| Warriors v Dragons | 49.3 | 46.5 | +2.8 | PASS |
| Bulldogs v Tigers | 48.5 | 45.5 | +3.0 | PASS |
| Titans v Sea Eagles | 48.6 | 48.5 | +0.1 | PASS |
| Dolphins v Cowboys | 48.7 | 50.5 | −1.8 | PASS |
Model totals use the crude preliminary estimator (48.0 + 0.1×|line|) — the uniform Over lean against winter footy totals is an artifact, not a signal. Rain at any venue shades 4–8 pts Under at the Tuesday rerun.
Execution Plan
Now (OPENER)No action · opener lines recorded as CLV yardstick
Tue 4:05pm AEST (TEAMS)Full rerun: named 22s + registry sources + Pinnacle + weather
Sharks −4.5 triggerSources ≥ −8 and line unmoved → bet, quarter-Kelly window
Dolphins −3.5 triggerConfirm venue + sources → re-evaluate
Steam ruleSharks to −6.5 / Dolphins to −5.5 before Tuesday = value gone, no chase
R19 ledgerStorm −8.5 (0.5u) awaiting settlement — pull R19 scores to grade CLV