Sportsbet-priced upcoming bouts shown in Melbourne time. UFCgd is now operating in dog-bets-only mode. Geoff View audits the favourite first, then only promotes an underdog when the favourite looks overpriced, the dog has a credible fight path, and the historical dog-edge bucket supports the price.
Simplified dog-only shortlist. These are the rows that pass the guardrail at current best available prices.
Kamaru Usman has the better value path; Dricus Du Plessis looks too short.
Fatima Kline may win, but price is too short; Tabatha Ricci is the value.
Gillian Robertson has the better value path; Mackenzie Dern looks too short.
Decision-first board. Technical profile detail is in Fight Path Evidence.
Kamaru Usman is not being priced like a real chance, but his clearest route is to slow the fight down, win clinch/wrestling minutes and make Dricus Du Plessis work harder than the market expects. Geoff's non-market read has the fight path with Kamaru Usman, overall profile with Kamaru Usman, recent form with Dricus Du Plessis, and finishing threat with Dricus Du Plessis. At 3.18, the price is far bigger than Geoff's fair number of 1.79. This is a watchlist price, not a confirmed bet yet, because Dricus Du Plessis's recent form, finishing threat and overall profile still make him dangerous. Historically, this type of dog-price edge has been profitable, but it still needs fight-week confirmation.
Fatima Kline may still win, but the market is charging a premium price for her. Geoff has Fatima Kline only around 50.7%, not a 1.29 type of favorite. Tabatha Ricci's route is to turn this into a grinding fight, extend control time and keep rounds close. The non-market profile splits this fight: form/finish lean Fatima Kline, but fight path gives Tabatha Ricci enough of a route that 3.62 versus fair 2.03 becomes the value. The historical support is strongest when the dog has a clear price gap like this.
Geoff makes Gillian Robertson the more likely winner at about 52.2%. The simple read: Gillian Robertson has the better repeatable path to bank minutes, especially if the fight spends time in clinch, grappling or top-control positions. The overall non-market profile says: Form dog | Finish fav | Profile even | Fight path dog. The market is still treating Mackenzie Dern like the clear side, so 2.72 looks too generous.
| Time | Bout | Geoff View | Action | Price | Edge | Best Book | Guardrail | Historical Support | Confidence | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2026 11:45 | Dricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman | Kamaru Usman | Dog candidate: Kamaru Usman | Kamaru Usman 3.5 @ TAB | fair 1.79 | +24.5 pts dog | TAB | Qualifies (4/4) | Dog edge 5%+: 54 bets, 74.07% hit, 12.04% ROI | Strong watch | Kamaru Usman is not being priced like a real chance, but his clearest route is to slow the fight down, win clinch/wrestling minutes and make Dricus Du Plessis work harder than the market expects. Geoff's non-market read has the fight path with Kamaru Usman, overall profile with Kamaru Usman, recent form with Dricus Du Plessis, and finishing threat with Dricus Du Plessis. At 3.18, the price is far bigger than Geoff's fair number of 1.79. This is a watchlist price, not a confirmed bet yet, because Dricus Du Plessis's recent form, finishing threat and overall profile still make him dangerous. Historically, this type of dog-price edge has been profitable, but it still needs fight-week confirmation. |
| 19/07/2026 09:45 | Fatima Kline vs Tabatha Ricci | Fatima Kline | Dog candidate: Tabatha Ricci | Tabatha Ricci 4.25 @ Ladbrokes | fair 2.03 | +21.7 pts dog | Ladbrokes | Qualifies (4/4) | Dog edge 5%+: 54 bets, 74.07% hit, 12.04% ROI | Strong watch | Fatima Kline may still win, but the market is charging a premium price for her. Geoff has Fatima Kline only around 50.7%, not a 1.29 type of favorite. Tabatha Ricci's route is to turn this into a grinding fight, extend control time and keep rounds close. The non-market profile splits this fight: form/finish lean Fatima Kline, but fight path gives Tabatha Ricci enough of a route that 3.62 versus fair 2.03 becomes the value. The historical support is strongest when the dog has a clear price gap like this. |
| 16/08/2026 13:00 | Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson | Gillian Robertson | Dog candidate: Gillian Robertson | Gillian Robertson 3.0 @ TAB | fair 1.92 | +15.4 pts dog | TAB | Qualifies (4/4) | Dog edge 5%+: 54 bets, 74.07% hit, 12.04% ROI | Strong watch | Geoff makes Gillian Robertson the more likely winner at about 52.2%. The simple read: Gillian Robertson has the better repeatable path to bank minutes, especially if the fight spends time in clinch, grappling or top-control positions. The overall non-market profile says: Form dog | Finish fav | Profile even | Fight path dog. The market is still treating Mackenzie Dern like the clear side, so 2.72 looks too generous. |
| 19/07/2026 11:15 | Christian Leroy Duncan vs Jared Cannonier | Christian Leroy Duncan | Dog price only | Jared Cannonier 3.7 @ BetOnline.ag | fair 2.24 | +13.5 pts dog | BetOnline.ag | Does not qualify (3/4) | Dog edge 5%+: 54 bets, 74.07% hit, 12.04% ROI | Strong watch | Christian Leroy Duncan is still Geoff's fighter-side lean, so this is not a claim that Jared Cannonier is the better fighter. The issue is price. Geoff sees this closer than the market does: Christian Leroy Duncan about 55.3% rather than 70.4%. That makes 1.35 too short. Jared Cannonier at 3.21 is only interesting as a price play because the favourite has been overbet. Profile check: Form fav | Finish fav | Profile fav | Fight path fav. |
| Time | Bout | Geoff View | Action | Price | Edge | Best Book | Guardrail | Historical Support | Confidence | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2026 07:00 | Seok Hyun Ko vs Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani | Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani | Monitor only | Seok Hyun Ko 1.5 @ BetOnline.ag | fair 2.58 | 25.4 pts | BetOnline.ag | Does not qualify (2/4) | No strong historical bucket | Low | Geoff leans Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani, but there is not enough reliable UFC evidence yet. Profile check: Form dog | Finish even | Profile dog | Fight path dog. Treat this as a watch-only fight: look for weigh-in signals, late market movement and any camp news before taking it seriously. |
| 19/07/2026 07:00 | Alden Coria vs Stewart Nicoll | Alden Coria | Monitor only | Alden Coria 1.12 @ PlayUp | fair 1.48 | 20.6 pts | PlayUp | Does not qualify (2/4) | No strong historical bucket | Low | Geoff leans Alden Coria, but there is not enough reliable UFC evidence yet. Profile check: Form fav | Finish fav | Profile fav | Fight path fav. Treat this as a watch-only fight: look for weigh-in signals, late market movement and any camp news before taking it seriously. |
| 19/07/2026 10:45 | Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez | Chase Hooper | Monitor only | Chase Hooper 1.33 @ PlayUp | fair 1.59 | 10.0 pts | PlayUp | Does not qualify (1/4) | No strong historical bucket | Low | Geoff leans Chase Hooper, but there is not enough reliable UFC evidence yet. Profile check: Form fav | Finish fav | Profile fav | Fight path fav. Treat this as a watch-only fight: look for weigh-in signals, late market movement and any camp news before taking it seriously. |
| 19/07/2026 07:00 | Alberto Montes vs Tommy McMillen | Tommy McMillen | Monitor only | Alberto Montes 2.0 @ Caesars | fair 2.19 | 6.7 pts | Caesars | Does not qualify (1/4) | No strong historical bucket | Low | Geoff leans Tommy McMillen, but there is not enough reliable UFC evidence yet. Profile check: Form even | Finish dog | Profile even | Fight path even. Treat this as a watch-only fight: look for weigh-in signals, late market movement and any camp news before taking it seriously. |
| 19/07/2026 07:00 | Jose Delgado vs Austin Bashi | Jose Delgado | Monitor only | Jose Delgado 1.96 @ 1xBet | fair 1.78 | 6.7 pts | 1xBet | Does not qualify (1/4) | No strong historical bucket | Low | Geoff leans Jose Delgado, but there is not enough reliable UFC evidence yet. Profile check: Form fav | Finish fav | Profile fav | Fight path dog. Treat this as a watch-only fight: look for weigh-in signals, late market movement and any camp news before taking it seriously. |
| 18/07/2026 19:00 | Levi Rodrigues vs Felipe Franco | Levi Rodrigues | Monitor only | Levi Rodrigues 1.56 @ Caesars | fair 1.78 | 6.6 pts | Caesars | Does not qualify (0/4) | No strong historical bucket | Low | Geoff leans Levi Rodrigues, but there is not enough reliable UFC evidence yet. Profile check: Form even | Finish even | Profile fav | Fight path even. Treat this as a watch-only fight: look for weigh-in signals, late market movement and any camp news before taking it seriously. |
| 26/07/2026 02:00 | Magomed Ankalaev vs Khalil Rountree | Magomed Ankalaev | Monitor only | Magomed Ankalaev 1.33 @ Paddy Power | fair 1.49 | 5.4 pts | Paddy Power | Does not qualify (0/4) | No strong historical bucket | Low | Geoff leans Magomed Ankalaev, but there is not enough reliable UFC evidence yet. Profile check: Form fav | Finish fav | Profile fav | Fight path fav. Treat this as a watch-only fight: look for weigh-in signals, late market movement and any camp news before taking it seriously. |
| 16/08/2026 14:00 | Islam Makhachev vs Ian Garry | Islam Makhachev | Monitor only | Islam Makhachev 1.29 @ DraftKings | fair 1.31 | 2.4 pts | DraftKings | Does not qualify (0/4) | No strong historical bucket | Low | Geoff leans Islam Makhachev, but there is not enough reliable UFC evidence yet. Profile check: Form fav | Finish fav | Profile fav | Fight path fav. Treat this as a watch-only fight: look for weigh-in signals, late market movement and any camp news before taking it seriously. |
| event_time_melbourne | favorite | underdog | sportsbet_fav_decimal | sportsbet_dog_decimal | best_fav_book | best_fav_price | best_dog_book | best_dog_price | book_count | market_fav_pct | markov_fav_pct | fav_edge_pts | markov_dog_pct | dog_edge_pts | verdict | action_tier | markov_lean | model_alignment | data_quality | driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2026 11:45 | Dricus Du Plessis | Kamaru Usman | 1.36 | 3.18 | DraftKings | 1.39 | TAB | 3.5 | 36 | 70.0 | 44.1 | -26.0 | 55.9 | 24.5 | False Favorite / Value Dog | Dog Watch: Split Model | Kamaru Usman | Conflict with V2 | clean | control momentum dog; damage chain fav |
| 19/07/2026 09:45 | Fatima Kline | Tabatha Ricci | 1.29 | 3.62 | DraftKings | 1.31 | Ladbrokes | 4.25 | 31 | 73.7 | 50.7 | -23.0 | 49.3 | 21.7 | Favorite Overpriced / Dog Value | Dog Watch: Price Only | Fatima Kline | Conflict with V2 | usable | control momentum dog; damage chain fav; recent form fav |
| 16/08/2026 13:00 | Mackenzie Dern | Gillian Robertson | 1.44 | 2.72 | DraftKings | 1.51 | TAB | 3.0 | 26 | 65.4 | 47.8 | -17.6 | 52.2 | 15.4 | False Favorite / Value Dog | Dog Watch: Markov-Only | Gillian Robertson | Markov-only | clean | control momentum dog; damage chain fav |
| event_time_melbourne | favorite | underdog | sportsbet_fav_decimal | sportsbet_dog_decimal | best_fav_book | best_fav_price | best_dog_book | best_dog_price | book_count | market_fav_pct | markov_fav_pct | fav_edge_pts | markov_dog_pct | dog_edge_pts | verdict | action_tier | markov_lean | model_alignment | data_quality | driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2026 07:00 | Seok Hyun Ko | Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani | 1.48 | 2.66 | BetOnline.ag | 1.5 | BetOnline.ag | 2.7 | 26 | 64.3 | 38.8 | -25.4 | 61.2 | 23.6 | Watch: Thin Markov Sample | No Bet / Monitor | Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani | Aligned with V2 | thin | control momentum dog; recent form dog; posterior skill dog |
| 19/07/2026 11:45 | Dricus Du Plessis | Kamaru Usman | 1.36 | 3.18 | DraftKings | 1.39 | TAB | 3.5 | 36 | 70.0 | 44.1 | -26.0 | 55.9 | 24.5 | False Favorite / Value Dog | Dog Watch: Split Model | Kamaru Usman | Conflict with V2 | clean | control momentum dog; damage chain fav |
| 19/07/2026 09:45 | Fatima Kline | Tabatha Ricci | 1.29 | 3.62 | DraftKings | 1.31 | Ladbrokes | 4.25 | 31 | 73.7 | 50.7 | -23.0 | 49.3 | 21.7 | Favorite Overpriced / Dog Value | Dog Watch: Price Only | Fatima Kline | Conflict with V2 | usable | control momentum dog; damage chain fav; recent form fav |
| 19/07/2026 07:00 | Alden Coria | Stewart Nicoll | 1.08 | 8.0 | PlayUp | 1.12 | Ladbrokes | 8.25 | 30 | 88.1 | 67.5 | -20.6 | 32.5 | 20.0 | Watch: Thin Markov Sample | No Bet / Monitor | Alden Coria | Markov-only | thin | posterior skill fav; recent form fav; damage chain fav |
| 16/08/2026 13:00 | Mackenzie Dern | Gillian Robertson | 1.44 | 2.72 | DraftKings | 1.51 | TAB | 3.0 | 26 | 65.4 | 47.8 | -17.6 | 52.2 | 15.4 | False Favorite / Value Dog | Dog Watch: Markov-Only | Gillian Robertson | Markov-only | clean | control momentum dog; damage chain fav |
| 19/07/2026 11:15 | Christian Leroy Duncan | Jared Cannonier | 1.35 | 3.21 | PlayUp | 1.38 | BetOnline.ag | 3.7 | 33 | 70.4 | 55.3 | -15.0 | 44.7 | 13.5 | Favorite Overpriced / Dog Value | Dog Price Watch | Christian Leroy Duncan | Aligned with V2 | clean | posterior skill fav; recent form fav; damage chain fav |
| 19/07/2026 10:45 | Chase Hooper | Mitch Ramirez | 1.3 | 3.52 | PlayUp | 1.33 | BetOnline.ag | 3.7 | 31 | 73.0 | 63.1 | -10.0 | 36.9 | 8.5 | Watch: Thin Markov Sample | No Bet / Monitor | Chase Hooper | Aligned with V2 | thin | posterior skill fav; recent form fav; control momentum fav |
| 19/07/2026 07:00 | Alberto Montes | Tommy McMillen | 1.83 | 2.01 | Caesars | 2.0 | 1xBet | 2.08 | 32 | 52.3 | 45.6 | -6.7 | 54.4 | 4.7 | Watch: Thin Markov Sample | No Bet / Monitor | Tommy McMillen | Aligned with V2 | thin | damage chain dog; control momentum fav |
| 19/07/2026 07:00 | Jose Delgado | Austin Bashi | 1.86 | 1.98 | 1xBet | 1.96 | Caesars | 2.1 | 28 | 51.6 | 56.2 | 4.7 | 43.8 | -6.7 | Watch: Thin Markov Sample | No Bet / Monitor | Jose Delgado | Aligned with V2 | thin | control momentum dog; damage chain fav; posterior skill fav |
| 18/07/2026 19:00 | Levi Rodrigues | Felipe Franco | 1.51 | 2.56 | Caesars | 1.56 | Ladbrokes | 2.7 | 31 | 62.9 | 56.3 | -6.6 | 43.7 | 4.6 | Watch: Thin Markov Sample | No Bet / Monitor | Levi Rodrigues | Markov-only | thin | posterior skill fav |
| 26/07/2026 02:00 | Magomed Ankalaev | Khalil Rountree | 1.3 | 3.4 | Paddy Power | 1.33 | 1xBet | 3.75 | 30 | 72.3 | 66.9 | -5.4 | 33.1 | 3.7 | Watch: Thin Markov Sample | No Bet / Monitor | Magomed Ankalaev | Markov-only | thin | posterior skill fav; recent form fav; damage chain fav |
| 16/08/2026 14:00 | Islam Makhachev | Ian Garry | 1.25 | 3.85 | DraftKings | 1.29 | 1xBet | 4.12 | 24 | 75.5 | 76.5 | 1.0 | 23.5 | -2.4 | Watch: Thin Markov Sample | No Bet / Monitor | Islam Makhachev | Markov-only | thin | posterior skill fav; recent form fav; control momentum fav |
| event_time_melbourne | favorite | underdog | fav_ufc_fights | dog_ufc_fights | fav_markov_fights | dog_markov_fights | weight_overall | weight_path | weight_finish | weight_recent | weight_certainty | recent_side_quality | recent_profile | finish_profile | overall_profile | markov_path | control_diff | damage_diff | deficit_diff | recovery_diff | driver | notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2026 07:00 | Seok Hyun Ko | Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.466 | 0.318 | 0.136 | 0.08 | 0.834 | -0.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | -0.395 | -0.6 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | control momentum dog; recent form dog; posterior skill dog | Not release-grade until more reliable market/news confirmation. |
| 19/07/2026 11:45 | Dricus Du Plessis | Kamaru Usman | 10 | 19 | 10 | 19 | 0.474 | 0.326 | 0.174 | 0.026 | 0.685 | 0.055 | 0.04 | 0.175 | -0.48 | -0.129 | -0.35 | 0.11 | 0.001 | 0.047 | control momentum dog; damage chain fav | Release only if price remains available and weigh-in/news checks are clean. |
| 19/07/2026 09:45 | Fatima Kline | Tabatha Ricci | 4 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 0.463 | 0.335 | 0.184 | 0.018 | 0.619 | -0.195 | 0.189 | 0.23 | -0.015 | -0.034 | -0.22 | 0.189 | -0.152 | -0.091 | control momentum dog; damage chain fav; recent form fav | Release only if price remains available and weigh-in/news checks are clean. |
| 19/07/2026 07:00 | Alden Coria | Stewart Nicoll | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0.453 | 0.331 | 0.14 | 0.076 | 0.29 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.284 | 0.181 | -0.111 | 0.5 | -0.222 | 0.0 | posterior skill fav; recent form fav; damage chain fav | Not release-grade until more reliable market/news confirmation. |
| 16/08/2026 13:00 | Mackenzie Dern | Gillian Robertson | 16 | 20 | 16 | 20 | 0.451 | 0.376 | 0.141 | 0.032 | 0.78 | -0.252 | -0.045 | 0.084 | -0.039 | -0.215 | -0.404 | 0.087 | 0.054 | 0.025 | control momentum dog; damage chain fav | Release only if price remains available and weigh-in/news checks are clean. |
| 19/07/2026 11:15 | Christian Leroy Duncan | Jared Cannonier | 9 | 20 | 9 | 20 | 0.479 | 0.317 | 0.152 | 0.052 | 0.697 | -0.343 | 0.289 | 0.1 | 0.324 | 0.092 | -0.019 | 0.166 | -0.031 | 0.172 | posterior skill fav; recent form fav; damage chain fav | Release only if price remains available and weigh-in/news checks are clean. |
| 19/07/2026 10:45 | Chase Hooper | Mitch Ramirez | 13 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 0.468 | 0.348 | 0.141 | 0.042 | 0.499 | -0.007 | 0.586 | 0.087 | 0.881 | 0.247 | 0.372 | 0.115 | 0.154 | 0.0 | posterior skill fav; recent form fav; control momentum fav | Not release-grade until more reliable market/news confirmation. |
| 19/07/2026 07:00 | Alberto Montes | Tommy McMillen | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.343 | 0.159 | 0.047 | 0.15 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -1.2 | 0.032 | 0.0 | 0.5 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | damage chain dog; control momentum fav | Not release-grade until more reliable market/news confirmation. |
| 19/07/2026 07:00 | Jose Delgado | Austin Bashi | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0.457 | 0.339 | 0.151 | 0.052 | 0.394 | 0.016 | 0.207 | 0.679 | 0.463 | -0.221 | -0.833 | 0.75 | -0.167 | 0.0 | control momentum dog; damage chain fav; posterior skill fav | Not release-grade until more reliable market/news confirmation. |
| 18/07/2026 19:00 | Levi Rodrigues | Felipe Franco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.483 | 0.33 | 0.141 | 0.045 | 0.952 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.524 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | posterior skill fav | Not release-grade until more reliable market/news confirmation. |
| 26/07/2026 02:00 | Magomed Ankalaev | Khalil Rountree | 14 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.466 | 0.318 | 0.136 | 0.08 | 1.0 | 0.344 | 0.824 | 0.34 | 1.096 | 0.259 | 0.283 | 0.336 | 0.095 | 0.071 | posterior skill fav; recent form fav; damage chain fav | Not release-grade until more reliable market/news confirmation. |
| 16/08/2026 14:00 | Islam Makhachev | Ian Garry | 18 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0.466 | 0.318 | 0.136 | 0.08 | 1.0 | 0.312 | 0.956 | 0.199 | 1.97 | 0.495 | 0.72 | 0.176 | 0.011 | 0.0 | posterior skill fav; recent form fav; control momentum fav | Not release-grade until more reliable market/news confirmation. |
How individual fighter traits currently feed the dog-only guardrail and what needs to be learned next.
Coefficients are now dynamic per bout. They move by fighter depth, Markov history, uncertainty, opponent quality and whether recent form agrees with longer-term evidence.
The operating loop that turns each release-grade selection into better future coefficients, better book selection and more honest sharpness ratings.
UFCgd is now a disciplined release-grade dog filter. It is structurally sharper because it only promotes underdogs with historical support, a real fight path and a clear price gap. It is not honestly 95/100 yet because the current selections still need closing-line value and settled-result proof.
Needs live closing-line value, settled bet outcomes, and post-fight path validation before the rating can be proven rather than process-based.
Append-only ledger for qualifying and watchlist selections. Used for trend, CLV, and settlement analysis.