AFL — Round 19 · 2026

Games: Jul 16–20, 2026 Window: OPENER (eighth-Kelly, cap 1u) Sources: 2/4 — Wheelo 0.560 · Squiggle 0.440 Lineups: PENDING (Thu 6:20pm AEST) Run: Mon Jul 13, 2026
🎯 OPENER Bet Card — 2 Plays EIGHTH-KELLY · CAP 1u
# Game Market Side Book Price EV QI Stake Signal
1 GEEL v STK Spread GEEL −12.5 TAB $1.90 +12.2% QI 70 0.55u ✅ CONFIRMS
2 GC v WB H2H Gold Coast PointsBet $1.92 +16.0% QI 67 0.54u ⚡ INVEST
Total Exposure
1.09u / 6u cap
Remaining
4.91u
Post-lineups upgrade
ESS +39.5 INVESTIGATE → revisit Thu

⚠️ Data Alerts — Do Not Bet Until Thursday

PORT v FRE
PORT $11.00 H2H (market: 91% FRE) vs model FRE by 10.5 (61.8%). 29pt probability gap — likely major PORT availability news already priced in. Model may be blind to it.
INVESTIGATE
WCE v BRL
WCE $9.50 H2H, spread BRL −44.5. Model has BRL by only 25.0. WCE chain data sparse in R13–R15 — model may be underweighting Brisbane quality or WCE squad issues are in market.
INVESTIGATE
ESS v GWS
ESS $7.60 H2H (market 87% GWS) vs model GWS 80.8%. Spread ESS +39.5 shows 60.1% model cover but warrants Thursday lineup confirmation before acting. SAME_DIR_DIVERGES structure adds risk.
REVISIT THU
Phase Summary — All 9 Games
Phase 1 — BetMate Structural
GEEL v STKGEEL +22.3
SYD v ADESYD +10.0
PORT v FREFRE +17.4
NM v MELBMELB +24.8
COLL v CARLCOLL +13.8
WCE v BRLBRL +34.5
RICH v HAWHAW +70.1
GC v WBGC +10.5
ESS v GWSGWS +50.3
Phase 2 — BMA Model Line
GEEL v STKGEEL +20.5 σ35
SYD v ADESYD +11.0 σ40
PORT v FREFRE +10.5 σ35
NM v MELBMELB +14.0 σ39
COLL v CARLCOLL +9.0 σ32
WCE v BRLBRL +25.0 σ38
RICH v HAWHAW +50.0 σ37
GC v WBGC +9.0 σ34
ESS v GWSGWS +30.5 σ35
Phase 3 — CONFIRM Signal
GEEL v STKCONFIRMS +3
SYD v ADEWEAK
PORT v FRESOFT_DIV
NM v MELBSOFT_DIV
COLL v CARLWEAK
WCE v BRLSOFT_DIV
RICH v HAWSAME_DIR
GC v WBWEAK
ESS v GWSSAME_DIR
Phase 4 — Market Analysis
Geelong v St Kilda · Kardinia Park · Thu Jul 17
CONFIRMS
Model
GEEL +20.5
σ
35.0
Win%
72.1%
BetMate
+22.3
MarketSideModel%Mkt%Best $BookEVVerdict
SpreadGEEL −12.5 59.0%52.6%$1.90TAB +12.2%🎯 BET
H2HGeelong 72.1%64.6%$1.54Betfair +11.0%Correlated→PASS
H2HSt Kilda 27.9%35.4%$2.82Betfair −21.3%PASS
Gold Coast v W. Bulldogs · Carrara · Sun Jul 20
WEAK
Model
GC +9.0
σ
34.0
Win%
60.4%
BetMate
+10.5
MarketSideModel%Mkt%Best $BookEVVerdict
H2HGold Coast 60.4%51.8%$1.92PointsBet +16.0%⚡ INVEST
SpreadGC −2.5 57.6%52.6%$1.95BetRight +12.3%Correlated→PASS
H2HBulldogs 39.6%48.2%$2.06Betfair −18.5%PASS
Essendon v GWS · Docklands · Sun Jul 20
SAME_DIR
Model
GWS +30.5
σ
35.1
Win%
GWS 80.8%
BetMate
GWS +50.3
MarketSideModel%Mkt%Best $BookEVVerdict
SpreadESS +39.5 60.1%52.6%$1.90Sportsbet +14.2%⚡ REVISIT THU
H2HEssendon 19.2%12.8%$7.60Betfair +46%DATA ALERT
H2HGWS 80.8%87.2%$1.12Unibet −9.6%PASS
Richmond v Hawthorn · M.C.G. · Sun Jul 20
SAME_DIR
Model
HAW +50.0
σ
37.2
Win%
HAW 91.1%
Market
HAW −51.5
MarketSideModel%Mkt%Best $EVVerdict
SpreadRICH +51.551.6%52.6%$1.90−1.9%PASS
H2HHawthorn91.1%91.8%$1.07−2.6%PASS
Collingwood v Carlton · M.C.G. · Sat Jul 19
WEAK
Model
COLL +9.0
σ
32.1
Win%
61.0%
Market
COLL −6.5
MarketSideModel%Mkt%EVVerdict
H2HCollingwood61.0%58.6%+2.5%PASS — sub-3% EV
SpreadCOLL −6.553.1%52.6%+1.4%PASS
North Melbourne v Melbourne · Docklands · Sat Jul 19
SOFT_DIV
Model
MELB +14.0
σ
39.1
Win%
MELB 64%
Market
MELB −14.5
MarketModel%Mkt%EVVerdict
H2H Melbourne64.0%65.4%−5.3%PASS — model=market
Spd NM +14.550.5%52.6%−4.0%PASS
Sydney v Adelaide · S.C.G. · Thu Jul 17
WEAK
Model
SYD +11.0
σ
40.0
Win%
SYD 60.8%
Market
SYD −12.5
MarketModel%Mkt%EVVerdict
H2H Sydney60.8%63.3%−6.3%PASS
H2H Adelaide39.2%36.7%+4.2%PASS — mkt has SYD right
Port Adelaide v Fremantle · Adelaide Oval · Sat Jul 19
SOFT_DIV DATA ALERT
Model
FRE +10.5
σ
35.0
Model FRE%
61.8%
Market PORT
$11.00!
⚠️ Market implies 91% FRE (PORT only 9%). Model gives FRE 61.8%. 29pt probability gap. Do not bet — likely PORT availability news already priced in. Investigate Thursday before any action.
West Coast v Brisbane · Perth Stadium · Sat Jul 19
SOFT_DIV DATA ALERT
Model
BRL +25.0
σ
38.0
Model BRL%
74.5%
Market WCE
$9.50!
⚠️ Market spread BRL −44.5; model BRL by 25.0. 19.5pt discrepancy. WCE chain data sparse in R13–R15 — model may understate Brisbane quality or WCE has news in market. Do not bet until explained.
Thursday Refresh Checklist

📋 Post-Lineups Actions — Thu Jul 17, 6:20pm AEST

1 PORT v FRE Investigate PORT availability. If 2+ key players missing → market is right, PASS. If data artefact → re-run Phase 4 with updated line. CRITICAL
2 WCE v BRL Check WCE named squad. 19.5pt model-market spread gap needs explanation before any action. CRITICAL
3 ESS v GWS ESS +39.5 INVESTIGATE: confirm GWS travel/squad and Essendon home factor. Upgrade to BET if lineups support edge. QI 57, EV +14.2%. UPGRADE CANDIDATE
4 GEEL v STK Confirm STK team selection. Any key STK outs widen the edge further. Line likely moves toward model if Steam confirms. CONFIRM BET
5 GC v WB Confirm Gold Coast home squad and Bulldogs travel. Carrara home advantage is structural; confirm no key GC outs. CONFIRM BET
6 MoSHBODS + FootyF Re-run BMA when 4th/5th sources publish mid-week. May shift model lines 1–3 pts. If any game crosses 2pt market gap threshold, re-evaluate signals. BMA UPDATE
Phase 6 — CLV Framework
BetOpen LineOpen PriceTarget CloseCLV GateCLV Signal
GEEL −12.5 spread −12.5 $1.90 TAB −14.5 to −16.0 Line moves toward model GOOD if ≥ −14.5 at close
GC H2H $1.92 $1.92 PointsBet < $1.80 GC shortens = sharp agree GOOD if close < $1.80
Generated by AFL · Round 19 2026 · OPENER window · Mon Jul 13 2026
Sources: Wheelo (source=26, wt 0.560) · Squiggle (source=1, wt 0.440) · MoSHBODS/FootyF not yet published
⚠️ PORT v FRE and WCE v BRL market prices warrant investigation before any action
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